Volume 44, Number 9 · May 29, 1997
Reaching the Limit
By Bill McKibben
How Many People Can the Earth Support?
by Joel E. Cohen
Norton, 532 pp., $14.95 (paper)
The Carrying Capacity Briefing Book
by the Carrying Capacity Network
2,600 pp. (two volumes) pp., $43.00 (2000 P Street NW, Suite 240, Washington, D.C. 20036)
Fertility rates are falling fast enough in most parts of the world that it is at least possible that a child born today will be living when human population reaches its peak. The United Nations regularly estimates a high, low, and 'middle series' projection for population growth—the most recent 'middle series' shows our numbers, currently about 5.8 billion, essentially stabilizing at 10.4 billion sometime late in the next century. A recently completed series of computer models prepared by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria predicts with 60 percent confidence that the planet's population will not double again, most likely topping out at just over 11 billion.
Review, 5230 words
To read the full text of this piece, please choose one of the following options:
|
If you are already a subscriber to the Review's electronic edition, please sign in: |
To subscribe to the electronic edition, please press the button below. |
To purchase access to this article for $3, please press the button below. |