Perhaps, just perhaps, the 2006 mid-term elections will give pause to the 'long-term trend' school—industry, actually—of American politics. For years, pundits have been telling us, and it became the received wisdom, that the Republicans have been and will continue to be dominant in American politics. We have been through this many times: Richard Nixon, with the advice of the young political analyst Kevin Phillips, was building a 'New American Majority.' That lasted eight years at the most. Then, during the Reagan years, we had the 'Republican lock' on the Electoral College—the theory that Republican domination of Southern and noncoastal Western states gave them a permanent edge in the Electoral College vote. (Inconveniently, Democratic presidents interrupted these 'trends.')
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