Contents


How He Got It Right

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t by Nate Silver

The Physics of Wall Street: A Brief History of Predicting the Unpredictable by James Owen Weatherall

Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Gentle Genius

Late Raphael an exhibition at the Museo Nacional del Prado, Madrid, June 12–September 16, 2012, and the Musée du Louvre, Paris, October 8, 2012–January 14, 2013

Birds: The Inner Life

Bird Sense: What It’s Like to Be a Bird by Tim Birkhead

The Bluebird Effect: Uncommon Bonds with Common Birds by Julie Zickefoose

The Feathery Tribe: Robert Ridgway and the Modern Study of Birds by Daniel Lewis

John James Audubon’s Journal of 1826: The Voyage to The Birds of America edited and with an introduction by Daniel Patterson

Obsessions in Tokyo

Tokyo 1955–1970: A New Avant-Garde an exhibition at the Museum of Modern Art, New York City, November 18, 2012–February 25, 2013

Art Theater Guild and Japanese Underground Cinema, 1962–1984 a film series at the Museum of Modern Art, New York City, December 6, 2012–February 10, 2013

Will Saudi Arabia Ever Change?

On Saudi Arabia: Its People, Past, Religion, Fault Lines—and Future by Karen Elliott House

Saudi Arabia on the Edge: The Uncertain Future of an American Ally by Thomas W. Lippman

Politics and Society in Saudi Arabia: The Crucial Years of Development, 1960–1982 by Sarah Yizraeli

Poland: Malice, Death, Survival

The Eagle Unbowed: Poland and the Poles in the Second World War by Halik Kochanski

Iron Curtain: The Crushing of Eastern Europe, 1944–1956 by Anne Applebaum

In Search of Lost Meaning: The New Eastern Europe by Adam Michnik, translated from the Polish by Roman S. Czarny

Contributors

John Banville was born in Wexford, Ireland in 1945. He is the author of many novels, including The Book of Evidence, The Untouchable, Eclipse, The Sea (winner of the Man Booker Prize), and Ancient Light. As Benjamin Black he has written six crime novels, including Vengeance.

David Bromwich is Sterling Professor of English at Yale. His two new books, The Intellectual Life of Edmund Burke: From the Sublime and Beautiful to American Independence and Moral Imagination, a collection of his essays, were published earlier this year. (August 2014)

Ian Buruma is the author of many books, including The Wages of Guilt: Memories of War in Germany and Japan (1995), The Missionary and the Libertine: Love and War in East and West (1996), Murder in Amsterdam: The Death of Theo Van Gogh and the Limits of Tolerance (2006), and Year Zero: A History of 1945 (2013). He is the Paul W. Williams Professor of Human Rights and Journalism at Bard and a regular contributor to The New York Review of Books, The New Yorker, and The New York Times, among other publications. His new book is a ­collection of essays from these pages, Theater of Cruelty: Art, Film, and the ­Shadows of War. His book Year Zero: A History of 1945 is now out in paperback.

David Cole is the Honorable George J. Mitchell Professor in Law and Public Policy at Georgetown University Law Center. He is the author of several books, including The Torture Memos: Rationalizing the Unthinkable (2009), Less Safe, Less Free: Why America Is Losing the War on Terror (with Jules Lobel, 2007) and Enemy Aliens: Double Standards and Constitutional Freedoms in the War on Terrorism (2003).

Norman Davies is the author of, among other books, Europe: A History, Rising 44: The Battle for Warsaw, and, most recently, Vanished Kingdoms: The History of Half-Forgotten Europe.

 (May 2013)

Hugh Eakin is a senior editor at The New York Review, where he also edits the Review’s online daily magazine, the NYRblog. He has reported for the Review from several countries in Arabia and the Levant. (Fall 2014)

Mark Ford’s Selected Poems will be published in April. He teaches in the English Department at University College London. (February 2014)

Michael Greenberg is the author of Hurry Down ­Sunshine and Beg, Borrow, Steal: A Writer’s Life. (October 2014)

Andrew Hacker teaches political science and mathematics 
at Queens College. His new book, The Math Myth, will appear in the spring. (October 2014)

Hermione Lee is President of Wolfson College, Oxford, and the author of biographies of Virginia Woolf and Edith Wharton. Her biography of Penelope Fitzgerald will be published later in 2014.
 (May 2014)

Richard C. Lewontin is Alexander Agassiz Professor of Zoology and Professor of Biology at Harvard University. He is the author of The Genetic Basis of Evolutionary Change and Biology as Ideology, and the co-author of The Dialectical Biologist (with Richard Levins) and Not in Our Genes (with Steven Rose and Leon Kamin).

Avishai Margalit is Professor Emeritus of Philosophy at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is the winner of the 2012 Ernst Bloch Prize in philosophy.


Larry McMurtry lives in Archer City, Texas. His novels include The Last Picture Show, Terms of Endearment, Lonesome Dove (winner of the 1986 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction), Folly and Gloryand Rhino Ranch. His nonfiction works include a biography of Crazy Horse, Walter Benjamin at the Dairy Queen, Paradise, Sacagawea’s Nickname: Essays on the American West and, most recently, Custer.

Jonathan Mirsky is a historian of China and was formerly the East Asia Editor of The Times of London.
 (July 2014)

Robert O. Paxton is Mellon Professor of Social Sciences Emeritus at Columbia and a former president of the Linnaean ­Society of New York. His books include Vichy France: Old Guard and New Order, 1940–1944 and, with Michael R. Marrus, Vichy France and the Jews.


Caryl Phillips’s latest book is Color Me English: Selected Essays. He is Professor of English at Yale.
 (January 2013)

Ingrid D. Rowland is a professor, based in Rome, at the University of Notre Dame School of Architecture. A frequent contributor to The New York Review of Books, she is the author of The Culture of the High Renaissance: Ancients and Moderns in Sixteenth-Century Rome and The Scarith of Scornello: A Tale of Renaissance Forgery. She has also published a translation of Vitruvius’ Ten Books of Architecture and a history of Villa Taverna, the US ambassador’s residence in Rome. Her new book is From Pompeii: The Afterlife of a Roman Town.


James Salter is a novelist and short-story writer whose books include A Sport and a Pastime, Light Years, and Dusk and Other Stories. His novel All That Is will be published in April.
 (January 2013)

Cathleen Schine is the author of several novels, including Rameau’s Niece, The Love Letter, She is Me, The New Yorkers, and The Three Weissmanns of Westport. Her latest novel, Fin & Lady, was published in July 2013. She is a frequent contributor to The New York Review of Books.

John R. Searle is the Slusser Professor of Philosophy at 
the University of California, Berkeley. His most recent book is ­Making the Social World.
 (October 2014)

Zadie Smith’s most recent novel is NW.

Nomika Zion is a resident of Sderot, Israel, and a member of Other Voice, a grassroots organization that promotes dialogue with Gazans. (January 2013)